DETROIT: Over the next 48 hours, the Detroit Lions have two chances to secure a postseason berth: one on Sunday and one on Monday.
The Seahawks and Rams both having to lose this weekend for the Lions to secure a postseason berth was necessary prior to the Packers’ Monday Night Football loss to the Giants. The rationale is that there was a chance for both Green Bay and Minnesota to finish ahead of the Lions, which would have left the Lions, Seahawks, and Rams vying for the one available wildcard place.
However, this week’s results marked the seventh loss for the Packers and Vikings and the tenth victory for the Lions. Thus, a 10-7 record is the best that the Packers and Vikings can achieve this season, but
Commanders vs. Rams, 4:05 p.m. Sunday
With a defeat would ensure the Rams cannot reach the Lions, who are currently 6-7 on the season.
Sadly, the Washington club that the Rams are hosting has pretty much finished the season strong. The Commanders lost nine of their eleven games, including the last four, after going 2-0 at the beginning of the season.
There has been some misunderstanding on whether Detroit’s spot would be officially secured by the Rams losing, and I will clarify that below.
Commanders vs. Rams, 4:05 p.m. Sunday
With a defeat would ensure the Rams cannot reach the Lions, who are currently 6-7 on the season.
Sadly, the Washington club that the Rams are hosting has pretty much finished the season strong. The Commanders lost nine of their eleven games, including the last four, after going 2-0 at the beginning of the season.
There has been some misunderstanding on whether Detroit’s spot would be officially secured by the Rams losing, and I will clarify that below.
Six NFC teams cannot reach the Lions if the Seahawks lose, and three more teams have a mathematical chance to force a tie but would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Lions would undoubtedly be among the top seven teams once nine of the sixteen teams were eliminated.
There was talk that in addition to the Rams, the Lions would also need to lose to the Buccaneers or Falcons. That’s not why I think it is, and I’ll explain.
Assume the following: the Rams are defeated on Sunday, the Seahawks, Bucs, and Falcons all triumph and end up with a 10-7 record, and the Lions are defeated as well, finishing at 10-7.
Breaking the tie between the Bucs and Falcons to determine the NFC South winner would be the NFL’s first priority. In the end, those two teams would have the same division record and would have shared their head-to-head matches.
The records against common opponents tiebreaker would be used next. When playing their usual opponents, Tampa Bay is 9-3, but
Breaking the tie between the Bucs and Falcons to determine the NFC South winner would be the NFL’s first priority. In the end, those two teams would have the same division record and would have shared their head-to-head matches.
The records against common opponents tiebreaker would be used next. Against their shared opponents, Tampa Bay is 9-3 and Atlanta is 8-4.
The Buccaneers would thus win the division, giving the Lions, Seahawks, and Falcons two wildcard berths.
The conference record would be used as the tiebreaker because none of those three teams has a head-to-head advantage over the other two. Here, with a 6-6 record, the Lions would be eliminated because the other two would be 7-5.
However, have a look at this explanation of the NFL’s tiebreaking protocols: “In every tiebreaking step, only one club advances to the playoffs.” The wild card tie-breaker or the first round of the relevant division applies to the remaining tied clubs.
Consequently, Detroit is not guaranteed to be surpassed by the Falcons or Seahawks merely because they have better conference records. That wouldn’t automatically knock the Lions out of the postseason; it would merely remove them from contention for the No. 6 spot.
