Blue Jays Sign Justin Turner

Jan. 30: The Blue Jays announced they have signed free agent Justin Turner to a one-year contract, meaning he will be their new designated hitter for the 2024 campaign. According to reports, the contract is for $13 million, with the possibility of an extra $1.5 million based on roster bonuses and performance incentives, for a total deal of up to $14.5 million with The Vayner Sports client.

Turner was 39 in November, but in 2023, when he slashed, he most definitely didn’t look it.In 146 games and 626 plate appearances, he hit 276/.345/.455 with 23 home runs, 31 doubles, an 8.1% walk rate, and a 17.6% strikeout rate with the Red Sox.

Turner was approximately 14% over the league average in wRC+, marking his remarkable eighth consecutive season of at least 14% above average at the plate. He will insert a “professional hitter” into the Toronto lineup, one who is widely regarded for his leadership and clubhouse presence. He was among the best remaining corner infield and designated hitter alternatives.

It’s quite amazing how consistently Turner performs. Since establishing himself as a regular with the Dodgers in 2014, he hasn’t batted lower than.275, produced an OBP under.339, slugged less than.438, or struck out in more than 18% of his plate appearances in any of the previous ten seasons. He has hit.293/.371/.486 overall over that period. During that ten-game stretch, he has averaged 24 home runs and 35 doubles per 162 games played

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Turner signed a two-year, $22.7MM contract with the Red Sox, with a player option for the second season. In 2023, he received a $8.3 million salary in addition to a $6.7 million buyout on the option, which he declined in favor of going back to the open market. With incentives, Turner will be able to almost match the $15MM he ultimately received for his one and only year in Boston, even if his guarantees are lower on this current contract than they were on the previous one. He also plainly won when he chose to decline his player option, considering that it was a net $7.7MM call for him.

Turner is expected to be the Jays’ main designated hitter, however he may potentially play hot corner with fellow free agency signing Isiah Kiner-Falefa (or another unidentified player). In addition, he has played first base for 527 innings in his career, including 289 in Boston last year, giving him a reliable backup for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. when the latter needs a break.

Turner adds another right-handed bat to a lineup that already leans significantly toward that side of the plate, which is the team’s only concern going into the game between the two teams. In a sense, he is taking the place of left-handed hitter Brandon Belt, who is still unsigned despite having a productive season in 2023 with the Jays in a largely platooned role.

Currently, the only lefties anticipated in the Toronto lineup are infielder Cavan Biggio, center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, and left fielder Daulton Varsho. Among them, none is a very strong left-handed player, and all work best in a platoon configuration. While Turner’s historical averages versus righties are marginally better than those against lefties, the Jays’ lack of balance in the lineup means they may occasionally find it difficult to handle elite right-handed pitchers.

Thus far, Turner marks the biggest upgrade to the Toronto lineup of the offseason. The Jays made a spirited run at Shohei Ohtani and also met with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but both players wound up signing with the Dodgers. The Jays were also said to have strong interest in lefty-swinging Joc Pederson before he inked a comparable deal to Turner’s with the D-backs.

The Jays have been tied to a number of bat-first players over the past month, talking to representatives for free agent sluggers like J.D. Martinez, Jorge Soler, Rhys Hoskins and Pederson. Their interest to Turner dates back to at least mid-December, and now that it’s manifested in a deal, the Jays are presumably out of the running for yet-unsigned DH options like Martinez and Soler. Turner joins Kiner-Falefa, Kiermaier and now-former NPB righty-hander Yariel Rodriguez as notable free agent pickups for the Jays so far in the 2023-24 offseason.

Turner’s signing should force the Blue Jays into the luxury tax range. According to Roster Resource, Toronto had a $228MM bottom-line salary before to reaching an agreement with Turner, and the Jays were already just above the $237MM luxury limit. Turner will advance both figures by $13 million. The Jays will pay a very low penalty because they are second-time tax payers: a mere 30% tax on the first $20MM that they over the threshold and an additional 42% tax on the subsequent $20MM, if additional additions are planned.

They will ultimately have to pay $3.9MM in luxury penalties as a result of the Turner signing, so it is obvious that this was not a major barrier for them. The Jays are now slated to make an Opening Day payroll of $240 million, setting a team record by a whopping $30 million, surpassing the $210 million high-water mark set just last year.

With Biggio, Kiner-Falefa, Davis Schneider, and Santiago Espinal now projected to split playing time at second base and third base, it appears probable that more adjustments will be made by the Jays in the future. Schneider, in example, had an interesting debut in 2023, hitting.276/.404/.603, however that was only a small sample size of 141 plate appearances and he also had a 30.5% strikeout rate and a.369 BABIP. Undoubtedly, some regression is to be expected. Best recognized for his defensive adaptability, Kiner-Falefa is a better utility player than a starting player. Biggio performed admirably in 2023 at the plate, but he has never been able to match his performance from 2019–20. Espinal just finished with a career-worst.248/.310/.335 line.

Toronto is still dealing with some uncertainty at the back end of the group in the rotation. The top three is led by Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, and a revitalized Jose Berrios; however, Alek Manoah had a disastrous season on the pitch, and Yusei Kikuchi has not been consistent from year to year. Rodriguez indicated earlier may someday be a rotation option, but that is more likely to happen in 2025 because he will be strictly limited to a certain number of innings this season. Renowned prospect Ricky Tiedemann has only played four innings above Double-A thus far, but he might also make his debut in 2024.

The Blue Jays have been linked to a number of well-known but unsigned players, including Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, and Cody Bellinger. From a roster structure perspective, re-signing Chapman makes more sense because Toronto already has George Springer, Varsho, Kiermaier, and Turner in the outfield in addition to Turner at designated hitter, which complicates a rotation that includes the DH position. The disappointment of losing out on top targets early in the offseason would be somewhat eased by adding another bat and/or rotation piece, but it’s still unknown how much more ownership is willing to spend after the franchise’s expenditure has already surpassed previous records.