Even though Leicester City was relegated after nine straight Premier League seasons, Foxes supporters will be the first to concede that the eight seasons that preceded the drop in 2022–2023 may have been the best in the team’s history.
After winning their first Premier League title in 2015–16, their first major league championship since their founding in 1884, they went on to capture their first FA Cup trophy in 2020–21. In addition, they advanced to the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League in 2016–17 and made it to the semifinals of the UEFA Europa Conference League in 2021–2022.
Then 2022–2023 occurred. The handbrake was removed from the financial support that had previously been granted to bolster the team, and this was combined with bad hiring decisions made with the allocated funds for players. It wasn’t something that happened overnight, of course. The club was still dealing with the terrible, untimely death of owner Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha in a helicopter crash outside the King Power Stadium in October 2018, in addition to concerns about financial fair play and struggles after the Covid pandemic.
In April 2023, Brendan Rodgers’ excellent four-year tenure as head coach came to an end, and the team caused a stir when they named Dean Smith in his place. With just nine points from eight games in charge, Smith, who guided Norwich City to relegation in last season’s bottom spot, was unable to maintain the team in the Premier League.
Recalled from his position as Pep Guardiola’s assistant at Manchester City, Enzo Maresca was given the responsibility of leading Leicester City back to the Premier League. An exciting appointment, but one that has the fan base worried. Maresca’s sole prior managerial position was a disastrous 14-game stint overseeing Parma in Serie B. Similar to his assignment at Leicester, Maresca was tasked with leading a large team with a roster full of household names back into the top flight. He suffered the consequences of his poor start there, playing just four months into the 2021–22 season before being fired. Maresca and Leicester are in luck because life in the Championship couldn’t have gone much better
What Is the Historical Comparison of Leicester’s Start?
With the exception of one blemish in the record book—a 1-0 home loss to Hull City on September 2—Leicester’s return to the Championship has been outstanding. The team dominated significant portions of the game.
Based on a victory total of three points, just five teams in the history of the English second division have amassed more points after 11 games than this Leicester team, and only two of those teams have done so since the Premier League’s founding in 1992–93.
In England, the ten teams who have won 30 or more points from their first 11 games of a second-tier season have all advanced to the top division, while Leicester’s current average of 2.73 points per game
After 11 games, their goal differential of plus-17 is also among the best at the Championship level. Only five teams have achieved a goal differential of at least +17 after 11 games since the Premier League’s founding in 1992. All five of those teams went on to win the championship: Newcastle in 1992–93 (+18), Sunderland in 1998–99 (+18), Fulham in 2000–01 (+25), Portsmouth in 2002–03 (+17), and QPR in 2010–11 (+21).
When it comes to estimating how simple it can be to earn promotion back to the Premier League the season following relegation, the results of the last three Championship football seasons have been a little deceiving. The last three champions—Burley in 2022–23, Fulham in 2021–22, and Norwich in 2020–21—all spent one season in the Championship before returning as winners. Relegated teams from the Premier League have only won the championship in 12 of the previous 30 Championship seasons; Leicester appears to have the potential to accomplish so this year. On average, there are two failed attempts at a Premier League comeback for every successful one.
But as numerous other teams have demonstrated, promotion from the second division back to the top flight is an extremely difficult ask, even with the luxury of parachute money.
Only six of the twenty-one Championship teams promoted from 2016–17 had previously played in the Premier League. Only 27 of the 89 Premier League clubs that were demoted since 1993–1994 have successfully advanced to the Premier League on their first attempt (30%), and seven of those victories came through the play-offs.
It’s difficult to determine at this point if Leicester’s huge advantage over the Championship teams that aren’t guaranteed promotion is due to their own lack of consistency or anything else. After fact, there has never been as much separation between first place and third place after 11 games as there is this season (10 points), since the league was renamed the Championship in 2004–05.
According to the best measures available for the Championship season thus far, Leicester might indeed be that good.
With just six goals allowed from a league-low 9.9 expected goals (xG), they have the greatest defensive record in the tournament. In 2023–24, only Ipswich Town (25) has outperformed Leicester (23) both overall and in non-penalty situations (20). Furthermore, in terms of possession (63.8%), successful passes made overall (563), and completed passes in the opposition half (258), they are only trailed by fellow relegated team Southampton.
