Covering two major sports at Auburn — football and men’s basketball — is more than enough for a full-time job. But it’s always funny to me when I remember that, for both programs, the offseason is longer than the actual season.
That means we spend more of our time writing and talking about what might happen, compared to what actually happens. Once the season gets here, the games come and go in a hurry. But you spend months at a time talking about how it could go down.
Because of that, we tend to talk about expectations for the future quite a bit. For all of its success in football and basketball over time, Auburn has never been a place where championship seasons are demanded year in and year out. (And I’d say that’s unrealistic everywhere, especially when you’re talking about college basketball.) But the Tigers are more of a have than a have-not in the big picture of college sports.
This week’s mailbag talks a lot about expectations for Auburn football heading into its second season under Hugh Freeze. It also looks at how the Tigers stack up in the two major sports we cover here at the Observer compared to the rest of the SEC, and there’s also some chatter about just how high the expectations will be for basketball in this state. There’s also a question about an Auburn program we don’t cover.
On top of that, we’ve got questions about McGruff the Crime Dog, tree-hugging, Highway 280, ballpark food and useless sports accomplishments. All in all, it’s a trademark offseason mailbag around here. Thanks for being a part of it.
David’s list is strong, and it’s pretty similar to one that I would come up for Auburn football in 2024. Let’s break it down, piece by piece:
A winning season. After three straight losing records, Auburn’s top priority has to be getting above .500 in 2024. Vegas has the Tigers’ win total set at 7.5. The most recent SP+ probabilities — which don’t include the spring transfer portal activity — had the Tigers at 6.8 expected wins. This team doesn’t look ready to contend for a title right now, but the numbers say it should have enough to snag seven or eight wins.
The schedule looks to be as favorable as you can expect in a season with trips to Georgia and Alabama. Not having to play Ole Miss and LSU, while a blow to tradition, should help that quest. None of the non-power conference opponents look as tricky as New Mexico State on paper, and playing Cal at home will be beneficial in trying to go 4-0 outside of the SEC. Actually looking competitive away from Jordan-Hare Stadium against your two biggest rivals would help a lot, and who knows what Auburn or Alabama will look like come late November.
If Auburn can sweep the non-conference opponents and split the SEC ones, you’re looking at progress at 8-4. Beating either Oklahoma at home or Missouri on the road would raise the ceiling even higher. Take care of business against the teams you’re better than and put up real fights as an underdog, and you’ll be in solid shape.
A top-10 nationally and top-4 in the SEC recruiting class. Freeze has said the goal for Auburn in 2025 is a top-five class. While I think we can all get caught up in rankings a little too much — especially considering how varying they are across the four major outlets — just being able to stack another class like the one Auburn had in 2024 is a great step toward building a consistent program. Freeze and his staff are gonna swing for the fences, but I think David has a good barometer here as well.
Much more consistency in the passing game. This is the make-or-break aspect for Auburn football in 2024. I’ve said it a billion times, but I’ll add another here: Auburn was out-passed (in terms of yards per attempt) in all seven of its losses last season, which came against FBS teams that finished with winning records. Deciding to invest in the talent surrounding Payton Thorne in his final season of eligibility makes a lot of team-building sense, given the program’s current timeline. It could backfire, though, if Auburn is unable to throw the ball more effectively against the better teams on its schedule. I wouldn’t expect this passing offense to become one of the SEC’s best in 2024, but it must be better.
Stability in the coaching staff. Auburn could benefit from continuity on both sides of the ball. Coaching changes are going to come with the territory each offseason, but the Tigers don’t need to keep the habit of hitting the big reset button every year — particularly when it comes to their offense. Freeze has more of his guys on this staff, and he’s banking on what worked for him in the past to do so at Auburn. We’ll see if it pays off in the long run. But being better in these previously mentioned areas should funnel into staff continuity.
Talent acquisition is fundamental to building a championship-caliber program, and Auburn improved greatly in that area in Freeze’s first year. The Tigers didn’t do nearly as well in the on-field product, and they’ve got to show that “proof of concept” in order to keep the recruiting machine at optimal levels. Fans need to see something to buy into longterm, especially in this NIL age.
From a roster perspective, Auburn looks better-equipped to take that on-field step forward in 2024, and the schedule — while still tough — isn’t the murderers’ row that it could be. The opportunity is there for a step out of this stretch of losing seasons and a step closer to contending again. The Tigers just have to go do it.
